Posted by Marty Brooks on April 08, 2008 at 21:07:04:
In Reply to: The Numbers That Really Matter posted by Allan Sniffen on April 08, 2008 at 06:42:05:
While there are both winners (WPAT-FM up 38.6%) and losers (WRKS and WCAA both down over 26%), the bigger story IMHO is the overall trend.
In 2007, the top 26 stations shared $707.7 million in revenue
In 2006, the top 26 stations shared $733.8 million in revenue
In 2005 (sorry no figures)
In 2004, the top 26 stations shared $785.7 million in revenue
In 2001, the top 26 stations shared $701.6 million in revenue
In 2000, the top 26 stations shared $822.5 million in revenue.
2001 appears to be a fluke, perhaps because of the terrorists attacks. Between 2000 and 2004 there was a 4% decline and between 2006 and 2007 there was a 4% decline.
If the top 26 stations decline at 4% a year for the next 10 years, revenues in 2017 will be only $471 million. That's still over $20 million a station and would probably be fine if the stations weren't highly leveraged, but when you have super high debt, $20 million doesn't cut it.
So the question is whether these declines are primarily economy related and will bounce back when the economy recovers, perhaps in early 2009 with the post-election economic "bounce", or are they more related to the current state of radio and the alternatives available.
Also, will the potential growth of HD over the next 10 years help stem declines by having more advertiser venues?